Analysis of the Global Pork Market Development Trends in the Second Half of 2013 Source: Aizhu.com
Release time： 2013-05-10
A report by Rabobank points out that, 2013 In the first quarter of the year, the global pork industry maintained a steady pace, with supply and demand essentially in balance, thereby keeping prices largely stable.
Analysts at Rabobank pointed out that... 2013 In the first quarter of the year, import bans on pork were announced across the globe, catching the industry somewhat off guard. These bans will continue to impact the global pork industry throughout the second quarter. If no one challenges these trade barriers, the industry’s upward trend will be stifled—simply put, supply will exceed demand. The only piece of good news is that the growth momentum in the number of live pigs will slow down, and the total number of pigs may even decline. Coupled with the anticipated drop in feed prices, pig farmers and the entire industry can look forward to improved profit margins.
However, for pig farmers, pork prices have been lower than expected, resulting in profit margins at the beginning of this year falling short of projections.
Pork prices in China, the United States, and Russia have all declined, primarily because pork production has been growing faster than demand. In China, the recovery of pork production has been significantly quicker than expected. In the U.S., pork production has not fallen as much as anticipated, while production capacity has been steadily increasing. Moreover, the strong U.S. dollar has also affected export trade. In Russia, on the one hand, domestic pork production capacity has expanded, and on the other hand, imports have surged, leading to a sharp increase in supply. In Europe, due to weak demand and sluggish exports, pork prices have remained largely stable.
China and Russia are increasingly becoming important import markets for pork, while the United States and the European Union are becoming ever more reliant on pork exports. Based on these factors, the trend in the Northern Hemisphere’s pork market is expected to reverse in the second half of this year, with robust export demand coinciding with high pork prices. According to Rabobank, the Northern Hemisphere’s pork industry will be significantly affected—this impact will not only manifest itself in seasonal price increases but will also be reflected in carcass evaluations, as these evaluations will vary depending on the differences between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres and the changing seasons of spring and autumn.
Based on the aforementioned potential structural changes in the industry, 2013 The outlook for the global pork industry will be somewhat more optimistic in the second half of the year. Pig production in the European Union is expected to decline due to the implementation of the ban on gestation crates for sows, while China’s import demand will also see seasonal growth.
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